Urgent US Stock Market Warning
It is Thursday evening July the 22nd.
Those of you who regularly visit this site know that on a handful of occasions I’ve commented on the stock market. I enjoy numbers, patterns and sociological observation and, therefore the stock market is appealing. Also due to my love of numbers and patterns I’ve become a little of an amateur technical analyst.
According to a lot of technical indicators and longer term historical patterns I’ve been anticipating the market beginning a significant decline beginning by mid August and lasting at least through the middle of October. I see a lot of parallels between now and the same time frame in 2008 when I successfully called a similar decline.
Yet, due to the activity of the last month and the last two weeks in particular I feel that the decline may start earlier than I had been anticipating.
In fact, if the market starts up strong tomorrow the high may be reached during the day and the market may begin its fall before the close. If the market starts down and closes at its high or has a relatively steady climb up it may end the day at an important high.
My indicators point to a possibility of a steep fall either on Monday or towards the end of next week. I could very well be wrong, but the possibilities seem dire enough to warrant a warning and for anyone in the stock market to exit for the short term.
I strongly urge caution right now.
The wide swings in market action of the last month are often an early indicator of a change in trend or a big quick move. Now, the move could be up, but the risks appear too great for most people to take that gamble. Even if there is an initial strong up move I still am fairly confident that the averages will be lower in the fall.
This is more of a warning than a prediction. I’m only writing this because so many people I know got hammered two years ago when I saw the same thing occurring in the charts. Well, as they always say on Wall Street maybe “this time it’s different”.
Again I want to emphasize that I am an amateur and I’m not recommending any specific action. I’m only suggesting to those in the market to be vigilant right now and only wager what you’re willing to lose.
If anything happens to change my viewpoint I will write a market update. Otherwise I have a couple of other posts in the process of being written that are more in the general tenor of this site.
Jim Guido