General


General06 Feb 2009 06:59 pm

As a follow up to yesterdays post I would like to say that the market responded well to its need for urgent bullish movement. Yet, despite today’s sharp rise some work remains to be done and time is running out.

As I noted yesterday the Dow needs to break 8400 and stay above it for awhile to negate a very steep fall showing itself in many technical charts. I also stated that a further climb above 9000 is needed over the next few weeks to keep the net dip from demolishing the November lows.

Though today was a nice move there were danger signs present. Short term sentiment indicators for the Nasdaq 100 have now gone into overbought territory and look ripe for a short term decline. Now, it is possible for the overbought condition to last a couple of weeks, and it is possible that the Nasdaq could still rise another 5 or 10% before releasing the overbought condition, but that is not the norm. Since, as I mentioned yesterday, the Nasdaq usually leads the way up an down, it would be natural for the Nasdaq to start down early next week. This is not a prediction, but rather a statement of statistical probability.

The fact that the Nasdaq is now overbought and the Dow is still below the critical 8400 mark is a negative sign for the market. Yet, the last two days advances have been on higher volume which is a good sign. Couple that with the possible big news coming out of the Obama camp regarding the stimulus plan and this rally could have one more sizeable burst early in the week. Will that burst be enough to send and keep the Dow over 8400 for the foreseeable future?

That, my friends is the key question.

Since the goal of this and last nights post is to warn the casual investor of possible damage to their portfolios and nest eggs, I will give an update next week on how this got resolved and how safe things look over the net couple of months.

Jim Guido

This weekend I plan on a post on some thoughts regarding the war on terror.

General05 Feb 2009 07:07 pm

I don’t often discuss the stock market on this site, but sometimes things have to be said.

In order to understand the market I use a few basic tools. First I use wave theory to follow trends and Fibronacci numbers to anticipate possible turn points and trend changes. In addition to this I employ time cycle recognition to see intermediate and long trends and I use sentiment indicators to help make short term decisions and predict how the market will respond to news. In addition to these tools I also apply basic principles of social psychology to understand the herd mentality.

Well some interesting things are coming to light. The rally off of the November lows is struggling to say the least. The Dow, which had risen some 22% off of its lows has fallen back and now is treading water at about 9% off the bottom. The Nasdaq 100 which had risen some 26% had also fallen but has climbed back up to near 22% above its low.

The good news is that the Nasdaq 100 has been leading the way up and down over the last several years. The bad news is that the Nasdaq 100 rally in terms of time frames and waves looks ripe for a decline. The Dow needs to climb above 8400 and stay there farily quickly and then leap above 9000 within the next couple of weeks. If the Dow does this the Nasdaq rally could hold or even gain some in a consolidation phase before the next time frame conducive to a rally wave arrives.

Yet, if over the next few days the Dow does not get a foothold above 8400, it could get real ugly real quick. In such a scenario the Dow, S&P, and the Nasdaq could fall anywhere between 25 to 40% by late spring. I totally expected the current rally which earlier peaked at 25% to get closer to 40 – 50% before the next leg down. I also did not expect the next leg down to culminate before the fall.

I am not a financial advisor or expert, but sometimes a friend can warn you of a possible storm as well as a weatherman. So many people I know have lost a lot of money either actively engaged in the market or just passively involved through their retirement plans.

Yes, there will be some breath taking rallies over the next few years, but the downswings are most likely to be even more impressive. As an example the Japanese stock market topped in 1989. Since then it has enjoyed some incredible rallies of 60% or more but currently it is still down an amazing 80% from its high. So, after almost two decades anyone holding on to stocks waiting for good times to return would still be 80% poorer than in 1989.

Could it happen here? Well, if history and mathematics are any guide the answer is not only it could happen, but it is probable.

This is how the math of rallies can be deceiving. Let’s say the Dow losses some 80% of its value like it did in the last depression. in such a scenario the Dow would go from its high of 14,200 down to 2,800 then even if the Dow rallied an amazing 140% it would still only be 6,820. Even after that tremendous rally the Dow would still be down some 52%. Let’s say after the huge rally the Dow corrects a relatively minor 30% an the Dow is back to 4800 or some 63% down from the high. This is the kind of obscene swings bear markets incur in Deflationary Depressions.

Yet, if you keep your money safe the value of your money soars in a deflationary environment. Since Japan is a land of savers the average consumer is not suffering in their economy. Even though Japan has been in a deflationary depression for almost two decades one seldom hears of any social unrest or dire circumstances in Japan. Yet, those who stayed in the stock market are much poorer than they would have been otherwise.

Jim Guido

General25 Jan 2009 07:25 pm

Last weekend I saw the Cirque du Soleil in Atlanta. It was not only visually amazing, but a powerfully emotional experience. To see people push their bodies to perform at such a high level of execution and precision was awe inspiring. Watching people work together in such a organized manner demonstrated the level of harmony and purpose people can accomplish. When people work together to create such intense beauty and grace it is gripping and uplifting.

The Olympics and the NASA objective of getting to the moon are two other examples of how far people can push themselves and those around them to accomplish amazing feats. In some ways it is easy to fathom people working on their own to accomplish the previously impossible, but when people work together as an intricate machine it is truly mind boggling. The opening ceremonies for the Olympics in China this pass year was another example of how jaw dropping fantastic teamwork can be.

These feats of teamwork give me great hope for the future of man. The Cirque du Soleil in particular was impressive and hopeful, in the fact that the performers appeared to be from so many cultural and national backgrounds. Seeing such diversity working and functioning so intimately together was something to marvel at. It shows how well we can not only cooperate, but how we can flourish in harmonic rhythm.

Our politicians still talk of patriotic nationalism and globalism at the same time, without recognizing their irreconcilability.

I’m sure the Cirque du Soleil is filled with conflict as well as harmony, with self interest as well as teamwork. Yet, when all is said and done they can come out night after night and work as a well oiled machine an accomplish the goals and vision of the group. Such success breeds harmony and a sense of purpose which carries one past all obstacles and petty feelings. No society is, or will ever be perfect, but a global community constructed on our providing for everyone’s basic needs has many templates of success to pattern itself after.

The Cirque du Soleil, and the Olympics are just two of many thousands of models man has used to inspire himself to create beauty and harmony. In a circus not everyone has to have an outstanding skill, some people’s role is to support and assist those with talent and determination. Some stay in the background and organize, prepare or just plain encourage the performers of the troop to do their best. While many make the circus possible by just being an appreciative audience.

Mankind is incredible in its talent and industry. When our goal is to build and invent we create truly impressive objects and systems, and when our goal is to destroy or conquer we can be unimagineably brutal and devious.

The hope is that man begins to make his goals worthy of being accomplished, for man has shown that he is quite capable of accomplishing what he sets out to do.

The following lyrics address these ideas from a similar perspective. This song is part of a CD I should have on this site later this year.

Carnival                                                           7/4/08

Life is a carnival
A merry-go-round slowly spinning for me
There are wonders at every turn
Novel and talented people smiling

Here’s to the people who play hard
Here’s to the people who take time to care
Everyday is a party
Everyday is a walk at the fair

Come waltz a number with me
Gliding in step we fashion our own world
There is magic in melody
Poetry, love and sweetest harmony

Both performers and watchers are we
Take a bow before clapping
I’ll be your audience
A good fan for cheering
Then I’ll bask in your applause

Life is a carnival
A merry-go-round slowly spinning for me
There are wonders at every turn
Novel and talented people smilng

Jim Guido

General24 Jan 2009 11:26 am

What is happening to the Palestinians is appalling for many reasons. In my lifetime I have heard of many atrocities. The situation with the Palestinians stands out in my  mind for a number of reasons. Since I’ve been alive (I’m 53) most atrocities are perpetuated by a ruthless dictator or military leader. They are realtively short lived, and other nations either protest, minimize or ignore the situation. In time the chaos either burns itself out or succumbs to international pressure.

The Isreali atrocities have occurred over decades of time and not the work of one meglomaniacal leader but rather a national policy of a democratic state. This is not to say that Isreali citizens openly support the murderous actions of their government, but somehow the  organized political process does nothing to end the aggressive policies of the state. While  many Americans have protested the War in Vietnam, Iraq, etc. I know of no mass outrage expressed in Isreal.

Much of the world is aware and angry at the situation with the US being the major obstacle to international unity in pressuring Isreal to be humane. The US does not stop at ignoring the problem, but actually aids and supports the atrocities. The US uses its veto power to keep the UN powerless in addressing this issue in a substantive manner.

While the US press stays mute the rest of the world expresses its horror and sadness. The folllowing articles discuss the facts while painting the picture of the situation in the middle east.

These facts are from one of the articles below. Take a moment and really feel these statistics before moving on

According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, the final tally read: 1,314 Palestinians killed, including 416 children and 106 women; 5,320 injured, including 1,855 children and 795 women.

In comparison, the number of Israelis killed included four civilians and nine soldiers, along with 84 injured.

And according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the buildings destroyed included 4,100 residential homes (with 17,000 damaged), 20 mosques, 25 educational institutions and medical facilities, 31 security offices, 16 government buildings, and 1,500 factories and shops.

The Office of the UN’s Humanitarian Coordinator pointed out that 16 health facilities and an equal number of ambulances were destroyed or damaged during the 22-day conflict.

America’s Shame

By Paul Craig Roberts

January 08, 2009 “Information Clearinghouse — Why does Israel have a right to exist, but Palestine doesn’t?

This is the question of our time.

For sixty years Israelis have been stealing Palestine from Palestinians. There are maps available on the Internet and in Israeli publications showing the shrinkage over time of what was once Palestine into what Palestine is today–a small number of unconnected ghettos or bantustans.

Palestine became “the occupied territory” from which Palestinians were ejected and Israeli settlements built for “settlers.” Jordan, Syria and Lebanon are full of refugee camps in which Palestinians driven off their lands by Israeli force have been living for decades.

Driving people off their land is strictly illegal under international law, but Israel has been getting away with it for decades.

Gaza is a concentration camp of 1.5 million Palestinians who were driven from their homes and villages and collected in the Gaza Ghetto.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency was created 60 years ago in
1949 to administer refugee camps for Palestinians driven from their lands by Israel. As of 2002, the registered Palestinian refugee population was 3.9 million.

Caterpillar Tractor makes a special bulldozer for Israel that is designed to knock down Palestinian homes and to uproot their orchards. In 2003 an American protester, Rachel Corrie, stood in front of one of these Caterpillars and was run over and crushed.

Nothing happened. The Israelis can kill whomever they want whenever they want.

They have been doing so for 60 years, and they show no sign of stopping.

Currently they are murdering women and children in the ghetto that they have created for Palestinians in Gaza. The entire world knows this. The Red Cross protests it. But the Israelis brazenly claim that they are killing “Hamas terrorists who are a threat to Israel’s existence.”

The American media knows that this is a lie, but does not say so.

Israel has been able to slowly exterminate a people for sixty years without provoking sufficient outrage to stop it.

The United States, “Christian America,” has been Israel’s greatest enabler in its long-term murder of the Palestinian people. Millions of “evangelical Christians” endorse Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Palestine.

The rest of the world condemns the Israeli military attack on the Gaza Ghetto. Last week the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution requiring a ceasefire and the withdrawal of the Israeli SS from Gaza.

The United States abstained.

While the rest of the world condemns Israel’s inhumanity, the US Congress–I should say the US Knesset–rushed to endorse the Israeli slaughter of the Palestinians in Gaza.

The US Senate endorsed Israel’s massacre of Palestinians with a vote of 100-0.

The US House of Representatives voted 430-5 to endorse Israel’s massacre of Palestinians.

The resolutions endorsed by 100% of the US Senate and 99% of the House were written by AIPAC, as were the speeches praising Israel for its inhumanity.

The US Congress was proud to show that it is Israel’s puppet even when it comes to murdering women and children.

The President of the United States was proud to block effective action by the UN Security Council by ordering the Secretary of State to abstain.

Be a Proud American. Swagger and strut. Pretend that you are not besmirched by the shame that your government has heaped upon you. Take refuge in your ignorance, fostered by 60 years of Israeli lies, that the murder of Palestinians and the theft of their lands is “Israel’s right of self-defense.”

When Israel went on a military rampage during its 22-day air strikes and artillery attacks on Gaza, it largely singled out residential neighborhoods, hospitals, schools, and UN buildings on the pretext of targeting Hamas fighters.

But John Ging, director of operations for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), based in Gaza, kept insisting there were no Hamas fighters anywhere in the vicinity of UN-run schools or warehouses.

“What we have regretted in the past is that we have not been given a hearing to answer,” he told reporters Monday.

He charged that most of the allegations made by Israel were “unsubstantiated, unfounded – and continue to be repeated.”

Perhaps his strongest indictment of the Israelis was reflected in his response to a question on military tactics: “We don’t, in a civilized world, shoot the hostage to get to the hostage-taker.”

But in reality that was what the Israelis were doing in Gaza, says an Arab diplomat, echoing Ging’s comment.

“The Israelis violated every single international convention governing the rules of war and the treatment of civilians,” he told IPS. “Their military excesses can, in no way, be justified.”

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who praised Israel at a press conference in Jerusalem last week, describing the Jewish state as “a responsible member of the United Nations,” apparently had second thoughts when he saw the devastation caused in Gaza.

Standing outside a UN compound that was destroyed by Israel, Ban told reporters Tuesday: “I am just appalled. Everyone is smelling this bombing still. It is still burning. It is an outrageous and totally unacceptable attack against the United Nations.”

Despite pleas from the secretary-general, Israel bombed UN-run facilities, including schools and warehouses, on four different occasions.

One of the bomb attacks on the UNRWA compound took place on the same day Ban arrived in Israel.

According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, the final tally read: 1,314 Palestinians killed, including 416 children and 106 women; 5,320 injured, including 1,855 children and 795 women.

In comparison, the number of Israelis killed included four civilians and nine soldiers, along with 84 injured.

And according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, the buildings destroyed included 4,100 residential homes (with 17,000 damaged), 20 mosques, 25 educational institutions and medical facilities, 31 security offices, 16 government buildings, and 1,500 factories and shops.

The Office of the UN’s Humanitarian Coordinator pointed out that 16 health facilities and an equal number of ambulances were destroyed or damaged during the 22-day conflict.

Nadia Hijab, senior fellow at the Washington-based Institute for Palestine Studies, told IPS: “The scale of the devastation is such that Israel and its supporters are unlikely to be able to bury or bulldoze it out of the collective conscience of the world.”

There have already been calls to bring war crimes charges against Israeli leaders, she pointed out.

Although the formal wheels of international justice may grind slowly, citizens are not waiting.

“Trade unions in different parts of the world are calling for a boycott. Israel’s fruit shipments are rotting in its warehouses as importers in Scandinavia, Jordan, and the UK canceled orders,” she said.

In an open letter in the London Guardian last weekend, Israeli citizens themselves called on world leaders to impose sanctions against their own country: “This is the only road left. Help us all, please!”

Although a cease-fire has been declared, said Hijab, Gaza’s torment and siege is not over and the UN’s “We the peoples” are likely to remain mobilized until justice is done.

Speaking from Gaza, Ging told reporters that the population in Gaza remains shell-shocked, traumatized, and living in real fear.

Asked about the “most outrageous” incident he had witnessed, Ging said: “The dead children.”

Meanwhile, the United Nations is expected to lead international efforts to rebuild Gaza.

But Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the external affairs commissioner of the 27-member European Union, was quoted as saying that the EU would not fund reconstruction as long as Hamas was in control of Gaza.

Humanitarian aid, however, would be provided without any conditions, she added.

Hijab told IPS that “it is almost as though there are two different worlds, with the mainstream media, European and U.S. leaders, and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon living in one world.”

And in the other, she said, are the leaders of the Third World, the president of the General Assembly (Miguel D’Escoto Brockmann), and millions of outraged citizens.

D’Escoto has taken a very strong stand denouncing the United Nations as ineffective in taking any action against Israel.

Hijab said the former parrot the Israeli line about Israel’s need for protection while the latter exchange UN reports and eyewitness accounts of the destruction and damage to thousands of homes, schools, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure.

They also share photographs of phosphorus shells showering white flame on unprotected civilians; read about the killing of entire families among the thousands of dead and wounded; and respond with horror to the reports of women whose legs have been shorn off by new kinds of weapons, she added.

UNRWA Chief Appalled at Isreali Destruction in Gaza

ByThalif Deen

The last time the US restrained Israel in its never-ending wars of aggression was when President Eisenhower pulled the plug on the Anglo-French-Israeli effort to grab the Suez Canal in 1956.

Since then, we have not even chastised Israel when its actions hurt the United States. During the 6-Day war in 1967, for example, Israel attacked the USS Liberty, a Navy signals intelligence ship, in international waters, and murdered over 30 American sailors. The Israelis, of course, claimed it was an accident — but the Israeli claim was at least questionable, to put it charitably, because the Israeli fighter bombers made multiple attack passes, before Israeli gunboats machine gunned survivors in the water. Moreover, festooned with antennas, the Liberty had a very distinctive profile and was flying a huge American flag. Yet the US Congress never held an inquiry into Israel’s culpability (the only time in our history Congress failed investigate the root causes of a Naval disaster) and the DoD inquiry was as a disgraceful white wash.

Viewed in retrospect, the pusillanimous reaction to the assault on the USS Liberty by the United States government had a decisive grand strategic effect, however. It told Israel in no uncertain terms that it was now free to ignore or even hurt the interests of its patron in the pursuit of its own venal ambitions. History certainly suggests as much, because since that attack, Israel has operated without even a modicum of cosmetic restraint by the US. The Israelis have felt free to plant spies in the US government, like Jonathan Pollard. Most recently Israeli Prime Minister Omert bragged to Israeli citizens and the press about about he made Bush dance to his tune by interrupting a speech Bush was making in Philadelphia and telling Bush to humiliate the inept Condolezza Rice by forcing her to abstain on the UN resolution calling for a halt in fighting in Gaza — a resolution that she had helped to draft, presumably with Bush’s blessing.

Nevertheless, the American taxpayers continued to finance Irsrael’s arrogant behaviour year after year by repeatedly shovelling billions of dollars for new weapons and military/economic aid to Israel. The transfer of our front line weapons has been justified repeatedly as being necessary for Israel’s self defense, yet the Israelis have repeatedly used those weapons for offensive attacks, recently in Lebanon (2006) and now in Gaza. In the case of Gaza, it used the distraction of the US election in Nov 08 to break the cease fire (again using US weapons), and after triggering the desired response from Hamas, it unleashed its long-planned murderous attack on Gaza in late December, just weeks before the innauguration of President Barack Obama, in effect, pulling the rug out from under Obama and painting him into a corner at the very time when Obama was trying to focus his energies on and build bipartisan political support for dealing with the worst internal economic crisis since the Great Depression.

The GBU-39 guided bomb is perhaps the most egregious case point illustrating how our aid directly helps Israel to wage aggressive war regardless of American interests. After the disastrous Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006, the Pentagon pushed for and Congress approved the transfer of thousands of precision bombs to replenish Israel’s stocks in August and September 2007. The GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb was not included in this gift. But then, more recently, and for no apparent reason, four months before its assault on Gaza, the Pentagon first notified Congress of the GBU-39 transfer in August 2008. Congress was in recess during August, but transfer of GBU-39s to Israel was one of the first items it disposed of in after reconvening in September, in dutiful obedience to the demands of the Israel Lobby and its wholly owned subsidiaries in the Pentagon. These weapons and their delivery racks were then rushed to Israel, and in less that 3 months from the time of Congressional approval, 1000 GBU-39s were cleared aerodynamically for release from Israel’s planes and placed in the operational inventory, just in time for Israel’s attack on the Gaza Ghetto. The GBU-39 is one of the most modern weapons in the American inventory.

Last September, the GBU-39s were trumpeted by the Israeli press as bunker busters of choice for an attack on Iran. But that claim was preposterous and most likely deliberate misinformation, given that we now know the Israelis had been planning the assault on the Gaza Ghetto for at least three months. It was preposterous because GBU-39 has a tiny warhead (only 50lbs encased in a 280 lb bomb). Its small size and (theoretical) high accuracy, however, makes the GBU-39 a far more appropriate as a weapon of choice for assassinating individuals and small groups in densely populated urban areas, like Gaza, than for taking out deeply-buried nuclear components in Iran.

Unfortunately for the mass of innocent Gazans, the GBU 39 does not work as accurately as advertised. It has reliability problems, among other things, according to my sources some of whom have experience in using this weapon (indeed, one told me he thought its problems made it a step backward in effectiveness). To make matters worse, targeting intelligence is never as good as claimed by airpower enthusiasts. In the real world, once the bombing starts, the feed back from the effects of the attacks is ambiguous at best, and consequently target lists proliferate wildly, as was the case in WWII, Korea, Viet Nam, Iraq (I & II), Kosovo, Lebanon (I & II), and now again in Gaza.

All of which begs the question with respect to blindly supporting Israel: How much is enough? On January 19, Bruce Robbins argued in the Providence Journal that enough is enough.

Israel’s claim of self defense in Gaza was bogus because, the ceasefire was working. Robbins quotes Israeli figures, which say the number of rockets fired out of Gaza in July, August, September and October 2008 was, respectively, 1, 8, 1, and 2, whereas in the two months before the cease-fire, the Gazans fired 149 and 87 rockets. The ceasefire was broken on Nov. 4-5, when Israel launched air and ground attacks against Hamas, while the attention of the world was distracted by the U.S. election (sound familiar?). Whatever started this new and massive round of atrocities, the Israeli parliamentary election being he most probably candidate, it was not a few more rockets, rockets that may not have been fired by Hamas at all, but by splinter groups, like Islamist Jihad. What Robbins does not say is that the overwhelming majority of rockets fired from within Gaza are homemade Qassam rockets. Qassams do not even have a guidance system. Their explosive warhead weighs between one pound and 22 pounds, depending on the model, and it is made of smuggled TNT and urea nitrate, a common fertilizer. Its propellent is a mixture of sugar and potassium nitrate, another common fertilizer, and the fuse designed to detonate the warhead is made from a rifle or pistol cartridge, a spring, and a nail. In flight, the rocket is not even spin stabilized but merely settled down by primitive fins, make out of sheet metal, mounted next to the nozzles … which is a dynamically unstable configuration and is why it often leaves a crazy corkscrewing smoke trail when launched in the direction of Israel.

None of this matters, however. It does not matter that the Israelis have slaughtered over 1300 people in the Gaza Ghetto against a loss of of only 13 Israelis, because Congress is cheering, having passed a resolution of overwhelming support (390 to 5) in the House. And it does not matter that Obama is hosed and will probably be humiliated into toeing the line from the git go, because he has pledged to preserve the special relationship.

Franklin “Chuck” Spinney is a former military analyst for the Pentagon. He currently lives on a sailboat in the Mediterranean and can be reached at chuck_spinney@mac.com

Articles such as these are everywhere but on and in the US mainstream press.

Every previous president, except for maybe Carter, has given in and assisted the Isreali’s in their disregard for internatinal law and human ethics.

Will Obama be any different? He had a good first day, but can he stand up for what’s right when no other president before him had such integrity.

I’m not pro-Palestine nor anti-Isreal, I’m just a person who never sees genocide as a solution.

Jim Guido

General21 Jan 2009 07:21 pm

In yesterday’s post (see below) I outlined eight fundamental ethical stances Obama would have to quickly tend to in order to back up his talk of change, hope and unity.

Well he tended or at least appeared to tend to at least three of them

First, he immediately began working on the middle east situation and is involving the Palestinians in the dialogue. In the past we have preferred to demonize the PLO and Hamas and basically only spoke to the Isrealies.

Second, Obama tried to put a halt to all of Bush’s last minute laws which many of them had to do with our basic human rights.

Third, he announced plans to close Guantanamo Bay. This, of course, has potentionally strong implications in terms of ending our policies of engaging in torture and also is a step towards restoring people’s rights to trial and due process.

Fourth, Obama began talks on plans to exit Iraq. The key here is that he just doesn’t move the military from Iraq to Afghanistan as he hinted during his campaign.

I have to admit I was pleasantly surprised by the majority of this. Obama showed mid season form on his swing today, let’s see if he has any follow through.

Jim Guido

General20 Jan 2009 06:43 pm

There were some nice words from President Obama today. Yet, his appointments and cabinet members do little to give me hope. I would jump on board the hope wagon if Obama did a few things which demonstrated the beginnings of a return to decency for the US. Without these bare minimum of basic human principles his words will remain empty.

1) Stop using the war on terror as a pretext to take away our citizens basic human rights. Return our rights to us quickly and earnestly.

2) Stop demonizing nations who have ideological differences from us.

3) Stop punishing innocent people for living in countries whose leaders we do not like.

4) Stop  our military, government and police from using any form of torture.

5) Stop undermining international law and the UN.

6) Stop supporting nations which indulge in ethnic cleansing and mass murder.

7) Stop talking like our nation is morally and ethically superior to all other nations.

8) Live up to being a citizen of the land of freedom, and have the US stop leading the world in % of the populace imprisoned.

Millions have died and suffered due to our sanctions and embargoes against nations. Iraq and Cuba are just two examples of how we punish civilians for their leaders.

The same type of prejudice which the blacks have endured in this country has now spread to other groups such as the Muslims and Arabs.

Patriotism and its us and them values accomplishes unity in much the same manner as the KKK.

When it comes to how we view and treat much of our fellow men I am often embarrassed to be an American. I would love to be proud of our country and the role it could play in helping us create a global community where everyone’s basic needs are provided for. The only way to reduce war and terror is to improve the lot of people’s lives and to cultivate and share the bounty of the planet.

Yet, if these eight issues are not addressed at the beginning of Obama’s administration, then it will be conclusive evidence that true change is not Obama’s agenda.

When it comes to basic human kindness there should be no waiting time. Each moment we wait brings more unnecessary suffering and hatred.

Each day many people are being killed and starved, and a few simple changes of policy could put an end to much of this. We’ve had too many leaders in the last century who have talked of human compassion while tolerating and executing policies which are callous and inhumane.

Just remember Mr. President, the whole world is watching.

You might be able to get by with articulate good words and token actions of humanity. But I truly hope you and the rest of us are better than that.

Jim Guido

General10 Jan 2009 03:32 pm

Those familiar with my posts know that I’m quite suspicious of anyone allowed to win the nomination in either party. Those who might really rock the status quo are ignored, marginalized or depicted as crazy by our military/industrial complex run media. One only has to look at the way Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich and Howard Dean were portrayed to see examples of this form of media control in action.

This is why despite his charm and articulation I had my doubts of Obama as a man of change. During his campaign his foreign policies definitely belied a man of change. His pro war rhetoric regarding terrorism, Iraq and Afghanistan were tried and true Orwellian propaganda. The old ironic I’m a uniter and a fighter routine, mixed with patriotic global humanitarianism were fed to us daily. Yes, that should sound confusing.

Since winning the election Obama has continued to talk like a man of  change and act like an old school conservative. His cabinet, advisors and retinue are as old school as one can get. He is surrounding himself with political and economic experts whose career of policies and actions have greatly been responsible for the political and economic messes and crisis we now find ourselves in.

First Obama is advocating for the same tired old bail outs and stimulus plans which have been part of the problem. The economy doesn’t need stimulating it needs restructuring. During the initial years of the Bush administration many were bemoaning the foolishness of having a 300 billion dollar a year national debt. Economic experts around the world complained that this was unsustainable and would result in the US economy ultimately drowning in a sea of debt. Well after a few bubbles these predictions have come to pass.

The solution offered by these forward thinking economists was in a reduction of debt and borrowing habits and an increase in an expansion of the real economy by encouraging the type of investment born from savings as opposed to loaning. This suggestion was not heeded as policy makers and the Fed continued to try to borrow and loan its way out of the problem.

Now the problem is plain for all to see and not just forward thinking economists, yet Obama and all the kings men continue to try to stimulate humpty together again. Obama’s solutions are to put together another money printing loan dominated stimulus package, and to print and borrow our way out of a defaltionary recession.  Obama made his intentions clear of how he plans  improving the economy when he announced that his projections are for a 1.2 trillion dollar debt this year along with a 1.6 trillion dollar debt next year. This was accompanied by comments leading one to conclude that we will be seeing plus 1 trillion a year increases in the national debt for years to come.

If 300 billion was unsustainable a few years back how is 1.2 trillion to 2 trillion a year sustainable now. What makes this even more absurd is the fact that we are entering a deflationary period where wages, prices and values of things are going down. In recent months the world economy has lost over 50 trillion dollars. So in a time when the world is losing money, wages and prices are dropping how hard is it to have our national debt ascend, and what could be the long term benefit of such a debt. Isn’t it just more of short term relief adding to more long term woe. But this is all Obama’s policy makers know, and this is the path the self proclaimed man of change has chosen. Now, with the new emphasis he will be able to point out how bad things could have been if it weren’t for the jobs he has saved (created).

Part of the reason for Obama’s bleak rhetoric is probably handler influenced. The old Wall Street pros that surround him know the benefit of talking down a company’s (the nations) expectations so that you can have a positive report later. It is stamdard procedure for many companies to talk down expectations at the beginning of a quarter so that they can beat estimates and talk their stock go up at the end of the reporting period. Obama’s articulating how bad it is and how bad its going to be while Bush is still in office is safe and can only make him look good in comparision. Even if things get worse he can state that he warned everyone and that it is better than he originally thought it be and this is just evidence of how well his programs, policies and agendas are working. Thereby keeping the faith and support of the faithful while contuing to try to solve a problem with the wrong tools.

Jim Guido

General02 Jan 2009 07:12 pm

The Truth of Illusion

Many a sage hath said
“All is an illusion”
If all is an illusion
then illusion is an illusion
and all is true

If all is true
then truth is true
And the truth of illusion
is that it is an illusion

Belief
is knowing something is true
despite all evidence to the contrary

Belief
is the truth
of illusion

Belief
is denial
A denial of mystery
Of the truth of mystery

Belief
is denial
A denial of truth
Of the truth of truth

Belief
is the ultimate illusion
for it makes truth into an illusion
And it makes
Belief
Into the disbelief of truth
and the belief of illusion

Belief
Is in what one
cannot know or see
touch, hear or validate

Belief
is about the eternal

Truth
which is eternal
is not real
it is belief

Truth
is
about
what is

Truth
is not forever
Forever
is not about life

Truth
is bout life
And
Belief
is about
the denial
of life

I’m not certain
if that will be
true tomorrow
but today
and for all
the day’s
I have known
All the day’s
I have touched
loved and breathed
it is the only truth
I’ve lived

Jim Guido

General28 Dec 2008 01:11 pm

At each moment of our lives we are making a decision of what to do, think and feel. We can choose to do something new or decide to do something we have done for ages. Some of these decisions are highly limited or even decided for us because of our need to make money and survive. Much of our day is routine and we basically function on autopilot as we execute repetitive tasks such as walking, eating and driving. Even more thoughtless repetition goes into chores, tasks and the execution of most people’s jobs.

Yet, despite this inbred repetition there are thousands of moments each day when we have choices in our life. We can either go deeper in an interest or do something new and different. Going deeper into an interest or hobby or gaining furhter mastery of a skill we have is vertical growth. Delighting in a new experience is horizontal growth.

Some individuals have very few interests that they hone and master, while others like to dabble in a multitude of things finding joy in the novelty of new experience. No human being is devoid of new experiences and, likewise, no person’s life is free of some level of repetition.

There is beauty in both mastery and novelty, in depth and variety. Something new today could easily become an  area of interest worthy of discipline and mastery tomorrow. There is beauty, and potential satisfaction in both vertical and horizontal growth. Many people spend countless hours regretting the choices they make either feeling their lives lack depth or diversity. Either tendency can be  rewarding or empty. The important thing is to find what balance  between depth and novelty provides your life with the greatest sense of satisfaction and meaning.

Our society seems to over reward vertical growth and dissuade one from horizontal growth. Very seldom is obsessive/compulsive behavior rewarding and satisfying. Most often compulsive behavior is a feeble attempt at covering up a sense of emptiness or dissatisfaction. Yet, those who do things to an excess end up doing that specific thing better than others and that is often the definition of success in a competitive capitalistic society.

The person who works the most hours or spends each waking moment playing their instrument is most likely to succeed in a society based on competition. People with no variety in their lives, no sense of family, friendship or relaxing reflection have an advantage over those who have  rounded diverse lives.

This is why our society is rather harsh on those who are not driven and compulsive. People who are not driven are often referred to as lazy or lacking direction. They are looked at as being  common and unworthy of attention and respect.

The shame of this is that our society rewards and honors the driven compulsive people whose very natical ure makes them depressed or at least empty.

This is not to imply that there is anything inherently wrong with vertical growth, for each person will find their own blend of the old and the new which they find pleasing and satisfying.  Yet, their does seem to be something wrong with a society that fosters and rewards a style of life which is empty and unsatisfying.

A sense of meaning seems to be most easily gleaned from things mastered and with the longest history. Yet, there is a certain kind of joy only offered by the new and refreshing. Both experiences seem to be necessary for a cocktail promising a satisfying existence. A new love or discovery has us feel competent, alive and young while the familiar and the mastered gives us a sense of accomplishment and self-worth.

Each of us has to find our own mixture of the old and the new, of depth and novelty of vertical and horizontal growth. Like the old song said, “make new friends but keep the old, one is silver and the other is gold”.

Jim Guido

PS My site is currently being updated. In the short term some of my lyrics have disappeared. I hope to have them restored soon.

General18 Dec 2008 09:08 pm

Well each appointment by Obama continues to disappoint and shows Obama to be less change oriented than he led us to believe. He has consistently surrounded himself with policy advisors and experts who are profoundly old school and whose policies have created the economic and diplomatic mess we currently find ourselves in. His securities and exchange appointee is only a little better than if he would have named Madoff to ferret out fraud and lead regulatory oversight.

I know I might seem a little hard on Obama before he’s even been sworn in, but I can’t help but feel validated in my belief that no true reformer would be allowed to win either party’s nomination. The corporate/industrial complex with its ownership/influence over the media would not tolerate a true change oriented person to become president.  Anyone can talk change, they just can’t act on it. In fact the better someone is at talking change and deceiving the public into believing that change is actually occuring while the status quo continues is not only electable, but preferred.

The power elite are thrilled when a president is able to convince the citizenry that our government has the noblest of intentions,  is dedicated to insuring the freedom and raising the standard of living of every American, and cares about their happiness and success. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, even George Bush (you choose) was able to convince the majority of Americans that we are the leaders in positive change and a beacon for the rest of the world. The fact that most American’s still passionately love their party and hate/fear the other shows that most of us still believe the great con and are unwilling to demand the kind of structural change we would need to begin to live up to our beautiful ideals and sentiments.

True change will not come until we demand our leaders actions to match their words.

President Bush has become less and less visible during his two terms. He seldom talks directly to the American people and instead has a steady stream of press handlers speak for him. When he does speak it is usually of the evil intentions of those who are jealous of our freedom, and the importance of the war on terrorism. A war, which is quick to point out, will last for years if not decades.

In this regard Obama will be a breath of fresh air and a partial healer of the US psyche. During hard times or significant events I imagine Obama will speak to the nation with a reassuring tone. He will help all the unemployed and those hardest hit by the coming depression to feel hope. He will offer succor both verbal and through policies which will create jobs. I can picture his confident tone and reassuring words fostering a spirit of charity, understanding and mutual support which will help quell the anger and hatred that can fester during hard times. Unlike Bush, Obama won’t hide from the public or only be able to unite people through fear and hatred.

Yet, despite these positives I still see him continuing the policies of fear and hatred on the international scene. He already has shown this tendency in his hawkish statements towards Iran, Afghanistan and in his status quo empty rhetoric regarding the war on terrorism. I was too young to remember, but I have a hard time imagining that people continued to call everyone a Communist after the downfall of McCarthy.  When will we stop allowing our politicians to get us to hate people by calling them terrorists, or get us to support immoral policies because of their being justified by the war on terrorism?

We are not going to get true change until we stop selling our political system short, or demand more from our candidates. The military/industrial complex is confident we never will. Will we?

Jim Guido

I no longer am willing to vote for the lesser of two evils. Are you?

« Previous PageNext Page »